Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.014191 0.016069 0.018106 0.020480 0.023171 0.026130 0.029630
2025-07-13 0.011505 0.014152 0.017270 0.021217 0.026088 0.031908 0.039404
2025-07-20 0.009968 0.012972 0.016717 0.021735 0.028295 0.036599 0.047938
2025-07-27 0.008950 0.012197 0.016437 0.022388 0.030548 0.041378 0.056902
2025-08-03 0.007897 0.011200 0.015686 0.022240 0.031606 0.044557 0.063916
2025-08-10 0.007097 0.010429 0.015119 0.022222 0.032754 0.047864 0.071319
2025-08-17 0.006332 0.009608 0.014372 0.021828 0.033261 0.050222 0.077476
2025-08-24 0.005856 0.009158 0.014104 0.022085 0.034713 0.054045 0.086126
2025-08-31 0.005350 0.008602 0.013612 0.021929 0.035479 0.056838 0.093367
2025-09-07 0.005055 0.008346 0.013553 0.022433 0.037308 0.061419 0.103857
2025-09-14 0.004546 0.007692 0.012794 0.021716 0.037054 0.062571 0.108704
2025-09-21 0.004183 0.007247 0.012334 0.021447 0.037509 0.064901 0.115721
2025-09-28 0.003766 0.006679 0.011629 0.020712 0.037121 0.065810 0.120420
2025-10-05 0.003636 0.006600 0.011758 0.021452 0.039407 0.071592 0.134463
2025-10-12 0.003482 0.006464 0.011770 0.021976 0.041333 0.076873 0.148045
2025-10-19 0.003360 0.006374 0.011856 0.022637 0.043561 0.082881 0.163544
2025-10-26 0.003138 0.006076 0.011531 0.022487 0.044224 0.085978 0.173622
2025-11-02 0.002953 0.005833 0.011287 0.022469 0.045130 0.089605 0.185067
2025-11-09 0.002739 0.005513 0.010870 0.022071 0.045238 0.091651 0.193437
2025-11-16 0.002618 0.005370 0.010785 0.022331 0.046700 0.096530 0.208164
2025-11-23 0.002461 0.005140 0.010509 0.022173 0.047276 0.099624 0.219333
2025-11-30 0.002384 0.005070 0.010551 0.022682 0.049303 0.105915 0.238059
2025-12-07 0.002194 0.004744 0.010036 0.021957 0.048596 0.106295 0.243586